Kamis, 12 Desember 2013

[smf_addin] Digest Number 2891

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Digest #2891
1a
Re: Magic Formula Investing by "Kermit W. Prather" kermitpra

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Wed Dec 11, 2013 5:53 am (PST) . Posted by:

"Kermit W. Prather" kermitpra

Thanks for the information. I'll check it out.


From: smf_addin@yahoogroups.com [mailto:smf_addin@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Randy Harmelink
Sent: Tuesday, December 10, 2013 11:42 PM
To: smf_addin@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [smf_addin] Magic Formula Investing


The formula for return on capital is actually much more complicated. He never does fully define it in his book.
A Yahoo group on the topic:

http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/magicformulainvesting/info
A good blog on the topic:

http://justadrone.blogspot.com
And the man himself:

http://www.magicformulainvesting.com
The "Greenblatt" ranking on Portfolio123.com uses:

OpIncAftDepr(0,TTM)/( NetPlant(0,qtr)+ Recvbl(0,qtr)+ Inventory(0,qtr))
OpIncAftDepr(0,TTM)/ $EV
I think $EV is defined as:

MktCap+ DbtTotQ-CashEquiv(0,QTR) + PfdEquity(0,QTR) + NonControlInt(0,QTR)

On Tue, Dec 10, 2013 at 11:23 AM, Kermit W. Prather <kermitp@tampabay.rr.com> wrote:

Has anyone try to build Joel Greenblatt <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joel_Greenblatt> ISBN 0-471-73306-7 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/0471733067> , Magic formula investing as described in wikipedia.org using the SMF-Adddin?

Greenblatt suggests purchasing 30 "good companies": cheap stocks with a high earnings yield <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earnings_yield> and a high return on capital <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_capital> . He touts the success of his magic formula in his book 'The Little Book that Beats the Market ', Joel Greenblatt <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joel_Greenblatt> ISBN 0-471-73306-7 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/0471733067> , citing that it does in fact beat the S <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500> &P 500 96% of the time, and has averaged a 17-year annual return of 30.8%[1] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Formula_Investing#cite_note-1>

I am more of a trader than an investor but I'd be interested in the results.

This link provides some detail to the formula.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Formula_Investing

Gurufocus has a link for the magic formula investing but is a premium service which I do not have.

http://www.gurufocus.com/MagicFormula.php

Calculation/Definition of the Magic Formula:

1. Define minimum Market Capitalization that meets your liquidity needs. Greenblatt used a market capitalization floor of $50 million, but advised that you can set the minimum as high as $5 billion.
2. Sector Filter: Due to their unique financial structures, all stocks in the financial and utility sectors are excluded. Calculate Earnings Yield = EBIT / enterprise value.
3. Calculate Return on Capital = EBIT / (Net fixed assets + working capital)
4. EY Rank: Rank the stocks in descending order based on Earnings Yield and assign a rank number to each.
5. ROC Rank: Rank the same stocks in descending order based on Return on Capital and assign a rank number to each.
6. Add the rankings and select stocks that have the lowest combined ranking score. So a company that is ranked 358nd best in terms of ROC and 122rd highest in EY would gets a better combined ranking (i.e., 470) than a company that is ranked 1st in ROIC but only 950th best in EY (i.e., 951).


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